Marin Yang Posted March 24, 2019 at 08:28 PM Posted March 24, 2019 at 08:28 PM (edited) Are you flying in this year's Cross the Pond Westbound? Are you concerned with adverse weather that could impact your flight? Do you want to see all the real-world meteorological forecasts and weather advisories in one place, at the earliest time possible? We here at Project Firmament have been thinking about offering such an opportunity. We have been providing comprehensive and preemptive meteorological advisories for our groupflight events, and we are exploring the possibility of providing a service to all pilots and controllers participating in CTP. The service could include (subject to change): Long-term weather forecast and prognosis of event airports Short-term weather briefing and advisory of event airports In-flight significant weather advisory Experimental: Weather advisory of ETOPS adequate aerodromes for ETOPS flight planning and dispatch - will focus on one route, but can be used for most arctic routes The scope of this service will depend on the community's demands. So what do you think? Please provide feedback / proposal by commenting below. Browsing through this thread to get forecast updates can be painful. So you can follow us on Twitter to get all the newest updates delivered to you: https://twitter.com/PrjFirmament (No unrelated content will be posted before and during CTP) Still a week from the flight? Why don't we start right away? Yes, you got that right. See the first weather prognosis for event fields below. Updates Forecast #1 - Mar. 24, see below Forecast #2 - Mar. 27, see below Forecast #3 (Final Forecast) - Mar. 29, on Twitter (https://twitter.com/PrjFirmament) Advisories for significant conditions will continue to be updated on Twitter through the duration of the event. This is not a CTP wxr advisory Edited March 29, 2019 at 01:25 AM by Guest Marin M. Yang - Director of Project Firmament EoF Global Ops Center: A One-Stop Community for Long-Haul/Oceanic Flight Planning and Dispatch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marin Yang Posted March 24, 2019 at 08:59 PM Author Posted March 24, 2019 at 08:59 PM (edited) Long-term Wxr Prognosis of Event Fields for Strategic Flight Planning Decision-making (+6 days) #1 (Mar. 24) Departure Fields during departure time window (30/11z-30/15z) Generally fair weather forecasted in Western Europe departure areas. Oslo / Gardermoen (OSL/ENGM): Precipitation possible, but not likely (Snow possible) Dublin (DUB/EIDW): Precipitation possible, but not likely Other fields: Precipitation unlikely at this time All fields: No heavy rainfall expected at this moment Arrival Terminals during arrival time window (30/18z-31/00z) Toronto/Pearson (CYYZ/YYZ): Precipitation LIKELY Chicago/O'Hare (KORD/ORD): Precipitation possible, but not likely (Snow possible) Other fields: Precipitation unlikely at this time All fields: No heavy rainfall expected at this moment. Moderate rainfall possible at YYZ. Forecast precision and details will improve as time progresses. Next advisory: TBD by community demands or when significant condition warrants. Edited March 26, 2019 at 04:28 AM by Guest Marin M. Yang - Director of Project Firmament EoF Global Ops Center: A One-Stop Community for Long-Haul/Oceanic Flight Planning and Dispatch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeremy Peterson Posted March 25, 2019 at 01:16 PM Posted March 25, 2019 at 01:16 PM Wow I’m very impressed by the resources you used to generate your forecasts; however, I want to note that forecasts farther than 4 days out are at best, uncertain and on average, frankly unreliable. It is only within 3 or 4 days ([Mod - Happy Thoughts]uming adequately high confidence and model agreement) that upper air forecasts are reliable and usually 2 or fewer days for surface forecasts to be reliable. Jeremy Peterson (HP) VATUSA Command Center National Operations Manager (NOM)/VATUSA9[email protected] or [email protected] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marin Yang Posted March 25, 2019 at 08:18 PM Author Posted March 25, 2019 at 08:18 PM Wow I’m very impressed by the resources you used to generate your forecasts; however, I want to note that forecasts farther than 4 days out are at best, uncertain and on average, frankly unreliable. It is only within 3 or 4 days ([Mod - Happy Thoughts]uming adequately high confidence and model agreement) that upper air forecasts are reliable and usually 2 or fewer days for surface forecasts to be reliable. Yes, that is why I tried to find consensus between forecasts from different sources before concluding, and there are some quite strong similarities between them. NOAA models have forecasts 2 weeks into the future so I [Mod - Happy Thoughts]ume they should have "some" level of certainty. And you are absolutely right about the variability of conditions and reliability. I should have noted above that these prognosis are for information only and are subject to change. I will try to update should new developments occur. Marin Marin M. Yang - Director of Project Firmament EoF Global Ops Center: A One-Stop Community for Long-Haul/Oceanic Flight Planning and Dispatch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeremy Peterson Posted March 27, 2019 at 12:48 PM Posted March 27, 2019 at 12:48 PM I think an update may be in order here soon. It appears that a pretty typical springtime setup will be underway across the Northeast with a southern stream and northern stream trough setup this weekend. The question is the degree of phasing of these two systems: the GFS and NAM have a faster progression that would likely limit phasing (a departure from the NAM’s usual slow & strong/heavier QPF bias); while the CMC, UKMET, and ECMWF show a slower, deeper phased system. The actual progression of these systems will determine the impacts on YYZ, ORD, the Northeast US, and potentially elsewhere. Jeremy Peterson (HP) VATUSA Command Center National Operations Manager (NOM)/VATUSA9[email protected] or [email protected] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marin Yang Posted March 27, 2019 at 06:31 PM Author Posted March 27, 2019 at 06:31 PM I think an update may be in order here soon. It appears that a pretty typical springtime setup will be underway across the Northeast with a southern stream and northern stream trough setup this weekend. The question is the degree of phasing of these two systems: the GFS and NAM have a faster progression that would likely limit phasing (a departure from the NAM’s usual slow & strong/heavier QPF bias); while the CMC, UKMET, and ECMWF show a slower, deeper phased system. The actual progression of these systems will determine the impacts on YYZ, ORD, the Northeast US, and potentially elsewhere. That's some great professional insight! Marin M. Yang - Director of Project Firmament EoF Global Ops Center: A One-Stop Community for Long-Haul/Oceanic Flight Planning and Dispatch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marin Yang Posted March 27, 2019 at 08:17 PM Author Posted March 27, 2019 at 08:17 PM Mar. 27 WXR FCST (+3 days) Departure Fields during departure time window (30/11z-30/15z) Generally fair weather is forecasted. The only model consensus so far is moderate precipitation along the Norwegian west coast that could have impacts on Oslo (ENGM). Snow is possible. For other fields: at this time, significant precipitation not expected. Conditions do not favor convection developments. Arrival Terminals during arrival time window (30/17z-31/02z) Precipitation is now less likely at Chicago / O'Hare (ORD). Precipitation is still likely at Toronto / Pearson (YYZ). Snow possible. The frontal system that produces these weather events will move eastwards. Exact impact on event fields will be determined by time. As time progresses on Saturday, ORD becomes less likely to be impacted, as Washington / Dulles (IAD) becomes more likely to be impacted. For other fields: at this time, significant precipitation not expected. Conditions do not favor convection developments. This information is for advisory purposes only and is subject to change. Next advisory: when significant condition warrants. Marin M. Yang - Director of Project Firmament EoF Global Ops Center: A One-Stop Community for Long-Haul/Oceanic Flight Planning and Dispatch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts